Speaker：Hiroyuki Hoshiro　[Institute of Social Science, the University of Tokyo]

Date：May. 18, 2021／15:00‐16:30 (JST)

Location：Zoom

Target：Open to the public

Summary
Whereas "scientific realism" posits that we can eventually discover the true nature of things through scientific inquiry, "scientific anti-realism" argues that we can never say that we have discovered the true nature of things even based on scientific inquiry. This debate about scientific realism has continued over a century without any resolution. The purpose of this presentation is to explore potential ways that scientific realism can be discussed in the context of the social sciences. As an example, this presentation examines "audience-cost theory," which is one of the central theories of international relations, and discusses the relationship of this theory to "entity realism," which is one position within scientific realism. According to entity realism, theoretical entities can be verified to exist through well-controlled experiments. This report traces change-over-time in research, especially survey experiments, related to existence of audience cost and discusses the relationship to entity realism. The conclusion reached is that, although audience cost may actually exist, the theory may be false.